Down to the Wire

KMT supporters attend a rally in Kinmen before the legislative election. (Photo by Central News Agency)

Publication Date：03/01/2008
Byline：PAT GAO

The hotly contested presidential election is forcing new discussion of polarizing issues in Taiwan, including sovereignty and identity.

Political pundits are growing hoarse, taxi drivers are subjecting hapless passengers to non-stop partisan diatribes and the media is rife with mudslinging--the signs are everywhere that Taiwan's presidential election is entering the home stretch.

Direct presidential elections are a relatively new phenomenon in Taiwan, with the first taking place in 1996. In the fourth installation of this national exercise in democracy, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is seeking to maintain its grip on the presidency following two successive victories by President Chen Shui-bian. Meanwhile, buoyed by a landslide win in January's legislative elections, the Kuomintang (KMT) has high hopes of reclaiming the executive power it held for more than a half century.

Former KMT President Lee Teng-hui won Taiwan's first direct election in 1996, defeating DPP candidate Peng Ming-min. In 2000, Chen defeated the KMT's Lien Chan and independent James Soong. In the hotly contested 2004 election, Chen outpolled a combined Lien-Soong KMT ticket by a razor-thin margin to win a second presidential term.

In this month's election, the durable political star power of KMT presidential hopeful Ma Ying-jeou, who won consecutive terms as Taipei mayor, will finally be put to a nationwide test. Frank Hsieh, Ma's rival from the DPP, served two terms as mayor of the southern city of Kaohsiung, Taiwan's second-largest city, before becoming premier in 2005. As mayors, both Hsieh and Ma also served as chairmen for their respective parties.

Hsieh's running mate Su Tseng-chang, another former DPP chairman, served two terms as magistrate of Taipei County, the largest local administrative zone in Taiwan, while the KMT's Vincent Siew, a former premier, is running in his second vice-presidential election after partnering with Lien in 2000.

Nomination Process

 

A legislative election rally for a DPP candidate in Chiayi, southern Taiwan (Photo by Central News Agency)

Hsieh was not even considered to be the frontrunner in the race to secure the DPP's presidential nomination until he won the majority of votes over three other contestants, including Su, in the party's primary election. In contrast, Ma was the only presidential hopeful to successfully complete the registration procedure with the KMT, making a presidential primary unnecessary. "Whereas the DPP has a clear, democratic nomination system that is not likely to see major changes in the future," says Hsu Yung-ming, an assistant professor of political science at Soochow University in Taipei, "the KMT has put its hopes in Ma and may have compromised its internal democratic process in doing so." Hsu believes that the KMT's tendency to repress dissenting voices within the party might diminish the appeal of its candidate as a potential national leader. Meanwhile, although the candidates have downplayed the issue, the fierce DPP primary election campaign may have caused lingering friction between Hsieh and Su.

With a doctor of laws degree from Harvard University, Ma's political career began in 1981 at the relatively young age of 31, when he became deputy director-general of the Office of the President's First Bureau under KMT President Chiang Ching-kuo, the son of former President Chiang Kai-shek. Ma has an abundance of administrative experience, serving as vice chairman and spokesman of the Mainland Affairs Council from 1991 to 1993, minister of justice from 1993 to 1996 and minister without portfolio from 1996 to 1997. Ma's scholarly image is widely seen as attractive to middle-class voters, while his handsome looks are said to help him to appeal to women voters.

Hsieh won praise for his successful campaign to clean up Kaohsiung's Love River during his two terms as mayor. Although he completed coursework in the doctoral program at Kyoto University's Department of Law in Japan, he left the school before finishing his dissertation. One year before Ma began working for Chiang Ching-kuo, Hsieh started his own career as a lawyer. Hsieh worked together with Chen, Su and incumbent Premier Chang Chun-hsiung to defend advocates of democratic reform and independence, including Vice President Annette Lu who were accused of treason by the Chiang government after a 1979 street protest in Kaohsiung. Then, in 1986, Hsieh helped found the DPP. Within the DPP, Hsieh is known for taking a more moderate stance toward Taiwan independence than other party members, insisting that Taiwan is already independent and thus has no need to declare itself as such. This stance, however, has caused concern among the DPP's pro-independence faction.

North and South

There is a distinct difference between voting patterns in southern and northern Taiwan, a difference that can be roughly described as "green south and blue north"--green being the color of the DPP and its pro-independence supporters and blue the color of the KMT and its affiliates. Southerners, long dissatisfied with the KMT government's allocation of national resources, which they viewed as favoring the north, increasingly voiced their displeasure with the KMT's authoritarian rule during the democracy and localization movements of the 1970s and 1980s. In recent years, the KMT's China-oriented economic policies have also stirred resentment among people who live in the south, where labor-intensive industries have been more affected by the emergence of China's low-cost manufacturing workforce than the north's more knowledge-based economy. Recognizing the economic and political concerns of southerners, Ma has embarked on a "long-stay" program, visiting the homes and businesses of ordinary people since July last year. In the meantime, Hsieh has tried to counter the perception of being biased toward southern Taiwan, especially after his two terms as Kaohsiung mayor, by making a greater effort to campaign in central Taiwan, where voting patterns are more mixed.

Although many polls have given the edge in the presidential race to Ma, polls in Taiwan are notoriously unreliable. According to an ongoing survey directed in part by Liu I-chou, a professor of political science at National Chengchi University (NCCU) and former director of the school's Election Study Center, the race is too close to call, with neither Ma nor Hsieh an unequivocal frontrunner. "Regular opinion polls usually have blind spots because they can't reach every part of the society," Liu says. "However, most undecided voters tend to end up supporting the DPP, especially in southern Taiwan."

Academics and political observers generally agree that the relative political strengths of the KMT and the DPP may play a stronger role in the election than the candidates' records and personalities. "As the distributor of national and local resources, a ruling party has an advantage in promoting its election campaign," Liu says. "But a ruling party also has a track record that can be examined and criticized."

It's the Economy

Under the DPP administration, Taiwan's economic growth from 2001 through last year averaged 3.7 percent. Last year, foreign trade rose 9.2 percent over 2006 to reach US$470 billion, registering record highs for exports, imports and trade surplus, with the latter rising 28 percent over the 2006 level to reach US$27.38 billion. According to a World Bank assessment released last year, Taiwan ranked 19th in the world in terms of knowledge-based economic competitiveness, second in Asia only to Japan, which ranked 17th.

 

Hsieh targets a "happy economy" to ensure the balanced distribution of national wealth. (Photo by Central News Agency)

However, salaries have remained stagnant in Taiwan since the 1990s, while prices for necessities such as food and fuel have climbed. Thus, Liu says that although Taiwan's economy as a whole has performed well, there is a common perception that quality of life has declined in recent years. To respond to these concerns, Hsieh has vowed to pursue a "happy economy" that stresses sustainable development and a more balanced distribution of wealth among different social groups, while Ma has targeted increasing per capita income from US$16,000 in 2006 to US$30,000.

The emergence of China as a powerful magnet for capital, resources and products has had a strong effect on Taiwan's economy. Currently, Taiwan's China-bound investment accounts for more than 70 percent of total outbound investment, a steep increase from about 34 percent in 2000. Exports to China, including Hong Kong, accounted for 40.7 percent of Taiwan's total export volume last year. Ma supports further boosting economic ties with China by loosening the current 40-percent cap on investment, whereas Hsieh proposes to examine China-bound investment on a case-by-case basis. Both candidates favor lifting the prohibition against capital inflows from China.

Hsieh and Ma's policies regarding Taiwan's economic relationship with China have strong political connotations. The issues of national identity and sovereignty will loom large this month, as they have in previous presidential elections. "Taiwan has a status different from other countries in the world," Soochow University's Hsu says. "Through their choice of president, Taiwanese will actually be making a crucial decision about Taiwan's future orientation."

Ger Yeong-kuang, a professor at National Taiwan University's (NTU) Department of Political Science and Graduate Institute of National Development, points out that although Ma and Hsieh's China policies share elements such as calling for direct cross-strait transportation links, they differ in the sensitive area of Taiwan's eventual independence or unification with China.

Both sides have been busy tweaking their policies in this area. "Ma has taken an approach that departs from traditional KMT policy [of unification], seeking to maintain the cross-strait status quo without leaning toward independence or unification with China," Ger says. "He wants to somehow acknowledge Taiwan's de facto independence under the name of the Republic of China (ROC). On the other hand, Hsieh is seeking to advance Taiwan's de jure independence by writing a new constitution and using 'Taiwan' as the formal national title, a stance that causes fears about a war with China."

Plebiscite Posturing

Taiwan's divisions over sovereignty are also apparent in the dueling KMT and DPP referendums regarding membership in the United Nations. The referendums are scheduled to be held concurrently with the presidential vote. Although it was a founding member of the world body, the ROC lost the China seat to the People's Republic of China in 1971. Taiwan's efforts to rejoin the UN began in 1993, but have failed because of China's opposition.

While the DPP referendum proposes joining the UN under the name "Taiwan," the KMT version will ask voters whether the government should seek participation in international organizations, including the UN, under the name "ROC" or what it calls other "practical" names. Both referendums are controversial because they are strongly linked to Taiwan's most sensitive issues--national identity and sovereignty.

Timing Is Everything

It is unclear what effect holding the UN referendums at the same time as the presidential election would have on the vote. "The KMT's attitude toward the UN referendum might be a decisive factor in its presidential election performance," Soochow University's Hsu says. Before the 2004 presidential election, the KMT discouraged voters from supporting a "defensive" referendum proposed by President Chen on the threat posed by Chinese missiles targeting Taiwan. Hsu says many academics believe that the KMT's opposition to the referendum led to the party's loss in the election, which was held at the same time as the referendum.

The DPP's UN bid has raised concerns among traditional allies such as the United States. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described the referendum as "provocative" and unnecessarily raising tensions across the Taiwan Strait. Such pressure, however, could work to Taiwan's advantage. "International concern about the referendum adds drama to the issue and draws attention to the crucial problem of Taiwan's status," Hsu says.

The Identity Issue

NCCU's Liu says that the DPP's referendum is largely targeted at winning votes in the presidential election as part of an effort to capitalize on the increasing trend toward Taiwanese identity. According to a survey conducted in part by NCCU's Election Study Center from 2005 through last year, 56 percent of people in Taiwan consider themselves Taiwanese, while only 5 percent consider themselves Chinese. The remainder identify themselves as both Taiwanese and Chinese. "The DPP knows that membership in the UN under the name 'Taiwan' is simply more attractive to voters than membership under the name 'ROC' as proposed by the KMT," Liu says.

 

Ma during a cycling event promoting the KMT's UN referendum (Photo by Central News Agency)

The issue of identity is closely related to ethnicity. Those who arrived in Taiwan with the KMT after it lost the civil war in China, as well as their descendents, have been perceived as identifying as Chinese. Liu says that this ethnic group began to mobilize as a voting bloc during the 1990s, voting for KMT candidates, especially those from the same "mainlander" background, to counter the emerging localization force represented by the DPP. After the 2000 presidential election shifted power to the DPP, the Holo and Hakka ethnic groups--each of which had previously divided their political allegiances between the KMT and the DPP--began to show greater support for the pan-green camp. This shift may partially explain why President Chen won the 2004 presidential election with slightly more than 50 percent of the vote. As Hsieh and Su are ethnically Holo, Ma's selection of Siew as running mate was likely influenced by a desire to balance Ma's "mainlander" heritage with Siew's Holo background.

Liu says that in contrast to the DPP's more aggressive nationalism, an emerging trend seen within the KMT is the rise of a more moderate form of identifying as Taiwanese. As most political observers do not believe that the nation's smaller parties are likely to challenge the blue and green giants in the near future, the locally oriented faction of the KMT may become the closest thing Taiwan has to a real "third political force."

However, NTU's Ger predicts that regardless of which candidate wins in the presidential election, Taiwan's two-party competition will continue, with the losing party forced to make adjustments in order to have a chance of securing the next election in 2012.

The right to hold referendums has been part of the DPP's platform since its formation in 1986. The KMT and its allies, however, did not throw their support behind the referendum process until June 2003, nine months before the 2004 presidential election.

In November 2003, the Legislative Yuan passed a referendum bill that was largely a watered-down version of a bill submitted by the pan-blue camp. The law requires that a referendum proposal must have the support of a minimum of 0.5 percent of all registered voters via a signed petition. Alternatively, a simple majority of legislators can initiate a referendum. The law also stipulates that an examination committee must give final approval to a referendum proposal. However, since the 21 seats on the committee are filled by the major political parties in proportion to their number of seats in the Legislative Yuan, the committee and the referendums it reviews have come to be widely viewed as political tools in the ongoing struggle between the DPP administration and the KMT-dominated legislature.

Once before the voters, a referendum can only become law if more than half of all eligible voters cast ballots for it. At present, this means that more than 8.5 million voters must cast votes, with half of them voting in favor of a referendum for it to pass. This has led to frequent calls to reduce the threshold by groups such as the Nuke-4 Referendum Initiative Association.

As the referendum law made its way through the legislature in 2003, the pan-blue camp made a major compromise by empowering the president to initiate a referendum when the nation's sovereignty is threatened. Such so-called "defensive referendums" only require the approval of the Cabinet to go before voters. In 2004, two referendums were proposed by President Chen. One called for acquiring more defensive weapons against China's rapid buildup of missiles aimed at Taiwan. The second called for negotiations with China on the establishment of a "peace and stability" framework. Both were held at the same time as the presidential election, but did not pass because they did not reach the required turnout threshold of 50 percent of registered voters.

On March 22, two referendums are scheduled to be held, asking voters whether the government should seek membership in the UN. In contrast with 2004's defensive referendums, the DPP's UN referendum was not initiated by the president, but by the party itself. More than 2.5 million people signed the DPP's referendum proposal. In response, the KMT initiated its own UN referendum proposal, which attracted more than 1 million signatures.

The results of the referendums are not expected to produce any immediate concrete results in Taiwan's bid to enter the UN. As demonstrations of popular will, however, they are meant to send a clear message to the international community that Taiwan's 23 million people desire representation in the world body, bearing in mind that Taiwan has a bigger population than 145 countries that are UN members.

The UN referendums have reopened the debates on Taiwan's legal status and sovereignty among political scientists and activists. Since 1945, the ROC government has exercised de facto rule over Taiwan. One of China's arguments for de jure rule of Taiwan rests in the 1943 Cairo Declaration, which stated that Taiwan would be returned to China at the end of World War II. Some argue, however, that the declaration was merely an unsigned press communique, and thus could not legally lead to a transfer of sovereignty.

Others claim that in signing the 1952 San Francisco Peace Treaty, Japan renounced all claims to Taiwan without specifying a recipient. Some groups believe that Taiwan should be brought under the international trusteeship system articulated in the UN Charter. Still others say that, as Taiwan has become a democracy, the island's sovereignty can only be decided on the basis of a popular vote.

In any case, Taiwan's de facto sovereign status is widely recognized at home and abroad. Taiwan has its own government, defense force, currency, international representative offices and is a member of the World Trade Organization. Although there are no signs that this de facto sovereignty will change anytime soon, the island's legally ambiguous status cannot last forever. Taiwan's UN referendums are an attempt to reduce that ambiguity.

--Pat Gao

The makeup of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan changed radically after the January 12 election, with the KMT claiming a 71 percent majority. Held just two months before the presidential election, the legislative election was widely viewed as an important indicator of public sentiment regarding the recent performance of the KMT and DPP. More significantly, the January election also determined the makeup of the legislature the new president will have to work with over the next four years.

January's election was the first to be held under the new electoral system, which was put into place after a 2004 constitutional amendment. Under the new system, the number of lawmakers was halved from 225 to 113, constituencies were redrawn and a single-constituency, two-ballot system was adopted.

Of the 113 legislative seats up for grabs in the legislative election, the ruling DPP won 27, including 13 district seats and 14 at-large seats, which are determined by the proportion of ballots cast for political parties. The KMT, however, won a total of 81 seats, including 61 district seats and 20 at-large seats. The small parties and independents fared poorly, gaining only three district seats and two aboriginal seats.

During the last legislative election in 2004, when the legislature still had 225 seats, the DPP won 89 seats, the KMT 79, the People First Party 34, the Taiwan Solidarity Union 12, the New Party 1 and independents 10 seats. No party secured an outright majority.

In January, facing the fact that the KMT had won more than a two-thirds majority in the Legislative Yuan, President Chen Shui-bian, who also doubled as DPP chairman and was responsible for directing the party's election campaigns, resigned as chairman to take responsibility for what he called "the greatest setback for the DPP in history." Soon after Chen's resignation, DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh was named the party's new chairman.

Surprised by its landslide victory, the KMT responded with caution, with chairman Wu Poh-hsiung assuring the public that his party would not abuse its majority power, but would instead use it to "stabilize society and unite people."

Liu I-chou, a professor of political science at National Chengchi University, interprets the pan-blue camp's victory as an indicator of public dissatisfaction with the government's recent performance. He expects the discontent to resurface in the presidential election. "The majority that the KMT won in the Legislative Yuan will create a greater appeal and a generally favorable situation for the party's presidential candidate," Liu says.

Liu notes, however, that while legislative elections hinge on a candidate's regional support base and ability to serve a local constituency, presidential elections are determined by the public's perception of a candidate's ability to perform on the national and international levels.

Hsu Yung-ming, an assistant professor of political science at Soochow University in Taipei, thinks differently. He says the KMT's overwhelming majority in the Legislative Yuan will raise concerns over the possibility of single-party control of the government's executive and legislative branches. "This concern is not about antagonism between the green and blue camps, but rather about the future of Taiwan's democracy," Hsu says.

Although the current atmosphere appears to favor KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, Hsu says Hsieh still has a chance to win if voters adopt a favorable view of his performance as Kaohsiung City mayor. Another factor in Hsieh's favor could be his ability to persuade voters that he can check the KMT's dominance in the legislature without causing bitter enmity.

Also, Hsu notes that despite the loss of seats, the pan-green camp still managed to attract nearly 40 percent of the vote in the legislative election, which saw a voter turnout some 20 percent lower than in previous presidential elections. It remains to be seen which candidate would benefit from the rise in voter participation typically seen in presidential voting, he says.

--Susan Yu

Write to Pat Gao at kotsijin@gmail.com